Global Conflicts and the Poor: Where Are We Heading For?

Backdrop: Our generation is witnessing a Unique Phenomenon amid Expanding Global Conflicts when a Record number, Sixty Million People are found to be Displaced as Refugees. The phenomenon of a Global surge in War, Conflict, Persecution, Religious Fundamentalism, Terrorism, Political Unrest, Border Disputes, Armed Rebellion, Internal Disturbances and External Aggressions, Sectarian Hostilities etc. on one hand and Natural Disasters, Forced Displacement due to Developmental Actions etc on the other, are all responsible for such unprecedented and dramatic shift.

Issues: This number has almost doubled in the past ten years, while in the past five years at least 15 conflicts have erupted or reignited. The figures, collected by the UN agency for its latest Global Trends: World at War, suggest that one in every 122 humans is now either a refugee, internally displaced, or seeking asylum. The number if notionally considered for the population of a country, it would be the world’s 24^th largest.

Just to Name a Few Africa: Côte d'Ivoire, The Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, South Sudan, Northeastern Nigeria, The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Burundi. Middle East:  Syria, Iraq and Yemen Europe: Ukraine Asia: Kyrgyzstan, Myanmar and Pakistan

More recently, I was in Kigali, Rwanda last month (May 2015) when just 200 kms south of us, we had the crises precipitated in Burundi. Over past two months, nearly 100,000 Burundians have fled across the borders, seeking safety in neighbouring Rwanda, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The plethora of crises and conflicts, observes the UN study, has also provoked a dangerous and worsening trend in irregular migration as millions of refugees around the world are pushed into an uncomfortable and deadly dynamic with human traffickers and smugglers as they seek passage to safety. Against that backdrop, the alarming figures detailing the global refugee situation is ultimately compounded by the fact that over half of the world's total refugees are children.

Alternatives: While the short term solution may simply lie in a greater humanitarian aid, it would only act a patch work and seldom provide a permanent solution.  Had the permanent solutions or alternatives as simple, the world would have seen a different Twenty First Century and our generation would have witnessed much better lives and peace. The recent implementation of the accord between India and Bangladesh on the Land Border Dispute through an amicable solution, acceptable to one and all is a typical example of a long term solution that I witnessed in Dhaka early this month. Can we think of more such accords globally? Can India and Bangladesh bilaterally teach the World what the multilateral agencies have not learnt from the past Global experiences?

It would be specious to opine that the prima facie evidence suggest short term patch work may not work. It certainly will. However, the long term and permanent solution may require strong political will both, in heart as well as soul from all stakeholders, building global efforts that are robust and solid and yet, dynamic. Sustainability efforts targeting livelihoods opportunity, generating and serving commercial and economic interest would certainly help. However, bringing this change by means of social protection in a different milieu altogether would require a paradigm shift in the thinking of the welfare states and the agencies such as UNHCR and the multilaterals like the UNDP, World Bank, ADB, DFID etc.

An approach that is the basic of all fundamental tactics and strategies will have to be adopted by one and all. An approach to provide basic and fundamental education, linking education with income generating activities and livelihoods, ability and talent based skill development, providing basic training on managing money and micro wealth management practices could be just one part of the sustainable development. As part of the social protection and providing social safety nets in the interim like employment generation for building infrastructure, social insurance such as micro insurance including life, accidental and health insurance to cover the risk of death and co contributory micro pensions to fight against old age poverty and cover the risk of longevity should be considered as part of the rehabilitation package itself.  

Policy Issue: More than one fifth of the world’s population lives on less than US$1.25 per day. Many of these families depend on insecure and fragile livelihoods, including casual farm and domestic labor. Their income is frequently irregular or seasonal, putting laborers and their families at risk of hunger. Self-employment is often the only viable alternative to menial labor for the ultra-poor, yet many lack the necessary cash or skills to start a business that could earn more than casual labor.

In the past, many programs that have provided ultra-poor households with either credit or training to alleviate these constraints have not been successful at raising household income levels on average.  However, in recent years, several international and local nongovernmental organizations have renewed their support for programs that foster a transition to more secure livelihoods. Combining complementary approaches—the transfer of a productive asset, training, consumption support, and coaching— into one comprehensive program may help spur a sustainable transition to self-employment.

The Graduation Approach: This is a basic approach targeted to the ultra poor where an impact may be visible for an 18-month comprehensive livelihoods program (“the Graduation approach”). This approach was first developed by Bangladeshi NGO BRAC in 2002 and has since been replicated in several countries. One of the recent pilot of the IPA (Innovations for Poverty Action) was tested in Indian context with Bandhan, an MFI.

The Graduation Approach Experiment in India The intervention consisted of six complementary components, each designed to address specific constraints facing ultra-poor households: 1. Productive asset transfer: One-time transfer of a productive asset, 2. Technical skills training on running a business and managing livelihood. 3. Consumption support: weekly cash transfers for 13 to 40 weeks 4. Savings: Compulsory Savings for Households 5. Home visits: Weekly home visits by Bandhan staff to provide accountability, coaching, and encouragement and 6. Health: During weekly home visits, Bandhan staff discussed health matters. Impact analysis highlights that long-run benefits outweighed their up-front costs. Economic impacts: Average total monthly consumption had an 11 percent increase over households in the comparison group with more households reporting to having enough food every day. Ownership of household and productive assets also increased significantly among Graduation program participants and so was the measures of financial inclusion. Self-employment: Households reported spending 25 minutes more per day on productive activities and experienced a nearly four-fold increase in livestock revenue relative to comparison group households. Psychosocial wellbeing: The Graduation program did not affect measures of physical or mental health. There were no changes in illness, happiness, stress, or likelihood of feeling anxious or worried in the last year. Political Involvement: One year after the program ended, 55 percent of treatment group households reported voting in the last election (compared to 48 percent of the comparison group) and 49 percent reported voicing concerns with their village leaders in the past year (compared to 44 percent in the comparison group). Cost-benefit analysis: Compared to less comprehensive interventions, the Graduation program had relatively high up-front costs. While the total implementation and program costs was US$330 per household (2014 PPP US$ 1,455) the estimated benefits from consumption and asset growth amount to 2014 PPP US$6,298 per household, representing an overall 433 percent return.

The IPA experiment was also piloted in half a dozen more countries and can be replicated and scaled in such conflict affected areas where a greater intervention is necessary on humanitarian grounds. Thus while a higher humanitarian aid in an immediate term could be the demand of the time that serves the immediate needs, a more semi-permanent need based approach may be required to provide for social insurance and social safety nets in the medium term so as to build up a more everlasting and perpetual solution to create sustainable livelihoods in the longer term.