[West Became Rich Before Becoming Old, East is Becoming Old
With Greater Poverty,(Before Becoming Rich). Unfortunately, India has never
factored Demography into its Policymaking]
We (in India) are in the process of conducting World’s
Largest Event – The Parliamentary Elections, where more than 800 million voters
are exercising their franchise to elect more than 542 Parliamentarians in
World’s Largest Democracy.
Senior Citizens as
Voters: One marked difference in Indian elections this year has been the
growing number of senior citizens as voters. I was on a polling booth at my
hometown Indore and observed an early morning interesting phenomenon. A decade
or two ago when we used to go for voting, there used to be a special queue for
the senior citizens. Probably, the numbers were limited within a single digit
of percentage of the overall population and for obvious reasons it was treated
normal. However, in the current elections in 2014, the majority of the voters
as observed in the morning session were senior citizens and the constable on
duty as well as the polling staff had a tough time to provide for a special
queue for them. Since most of the voters at the booth were senior citizens,
they had to wait for their turn rather than having a cake walk to the polling
officer as they used to do earlier. Looking at the pressure of some genuinely older
very senior citizens, the constable on duty wisely decided to create a special queue
for only the very senior citizens and announced the privilege for voters in the
75 + age group. This allowed a lot many, very senior citizens (aged 75+) to
franchise their votes conveniently. So is it that the population of senior
citizens in India growing leaps and bound? Or is it that the cohort of voters
aged below 60 lazier and would relish the holiday morning at bed and come to
vote only at mod day? Or are we having a trend where the senior citizens are more
enthusiastic to vote than their children? As I am a voter in a posh locality of
the town I thought that most of the health conscious morning walkers / senior citizens
had casted their vote early in the morning and there was nothing amiss in the phenomenon.
But having stayed back at the booth and observing the trend during the day and getting
feedback from friends and relations from other booth I realized that there was a ‘Special Phenomenon’
that could perhaps Not be ignored.
Demographic Explosion
in Greying Population: Greater Longevity, Higher Life Expectancy at 60 (18
for females and 17 for males), Lower Fertility etc. have played a significant role
in Indian demographics in recent times. India's population aged 60 and older is
projected to increase dramatically over the next four decades, from 8 percent
in 2010 to 19 percent in 2050, according to the report by the UNFPA. The report
has projected a rapid increase in India’s median age to 31 years in 2026 (it
was 20 in the 1980s) and has also projected a 326% increase in the number of
people aged between 60 and 80 by the year 2050 (from the year 2000); a 700%
increase in the number of people older than 80; as against a mere a 55% increase in the country’s
overall population. By mid-century, this age group (60+) is expected to
encompass 323 million people, a number greater than the total U.S. population
in 2012. UN projections suggest that India is “gradually but surely
transitioning away from a young age structure with the elderly population soon
outnumbering children in India”. It will have significant implications for
policymakers as well as businesses in a country that touts its ability to reap
a so-called demographic dividend of a young population as one of its competitive
strengths. Unfortunately, India has never factored demography into its
policymaking
Implications: The
profound shift in the share of older Indians—taking place in the context of
changing family relationships and severely limited old-age income
support—brings with it a variety of social, economic, and health care policy
challenges. India is yet to define and target solving these issues and challenges.
Dismemberment of Joint Family Structure has compelled senior citizens to live
in rather loneliness, with share of older Indians living with only a spouse or
alone doubled between the early 1990s and the mid-2000s. The aging of India's
population will also lead to increases in the prevalence of chronic conditions
such as diabetes and hypertension. By one measure, nearly one-half (45
percent) of India's disease burden is projected to be borne by older adults in
2030, when the population age groups with high levels of chronic conditions
will represent a much greater share of the total population. Despite India's
recent rapid economic growth, the majority of older Indians remain poor. A
Single digit percent of them have a pension of any sort. Savings Exclusively for
their old age is never on the horizon and sometimes difficult for a majority of
Indians because of low earnings, indebtedness etc. where a large share of the
aging population lives unbanked in rural areas.
Recalling Constable
at Polling Booth: Allow me to recall
the Smart Constable at the Polling booth mentioned earlier. He smartly segregated
the senior citizens and redefined the shift by created a Queue for 75+,
ignoring those in the age group of 60 – 75. What implications can it have? Do
we raise the Senior Citizen age to 75 as more and more people join the older
cohort??? Should we raise the Retirement age of the working population? Will it
actually help??? While it certainly helped him manage the crowd on the day of
polling, it also gives us an important lesson to learn. Since we have a higher
life expectancy at 60 and chances of living over multiple decades thereafter,
does it mean that we should increase the earning tenure and reduce the
retirement tenure by raising the age to work from 60 to 75? Can we resolve the
crises by working for an extra 15 years and hence reduce our dependence of our
savings by one and half decade? Or at Worst, are we not Compelled to Work till
the End?? Are we capable of doing it?? If compelled to work, will our physical capabilities
allow us to work or is it only out of compulsion? With people living well over
80, and most of the younger cohort today would continue to live upto 90s, ‘Non-earning
years shall be more than half of one’s earning years’. With little old-age
income support and few savings, labor force participation remains high among
those ages 60 and older, particularly among rural Indians. Evidence suggests
that not only does a large share of the elderly earn income, they also support
their adult children who often live in homes and work on farms owned by their
parents.
While there are no readymade solutions to such problems it’s
high time Indians took decision to start saving exclusively for their old age. The
Government of India is promoting the National Pension System (NPS) through the
regulated mechanism of the PFRDA. To extend the coverage of NPS to the weaker
and economically disadvantaged sections of the society with their limited
investment potential, PFRDA has launched NPS- Swavalamban which specifically
targets the marginal investors and promotes small savings during their
productive life. It aims at building up a corpus sufficient enough to buy an
annuity for their old age. It and has also offered co contributory pension
scheme under the Swawalamban benefits where the GoI tops us the pension
contributions to certain extent and under certain conditions for workers in the
informal sector. Swavalamban Scheme grants an incentive of Rs 1000 pa to all
eligible NPS / Lite accounts, if they meet the prescribed criteria. (More about
NPS Swawalamban in the next Blog). While India has started waking up for the
crises, neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal et al that share similar demographics
require aggressive shake up.
